correlation of serum ca-125 and progesterone levels with ultrasound markers in the prediction of pregnancy outcome in threatened miscarriage

background: the aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between ultrasonographic findings and serum progesterone and cancer antigen-125 (ca-125) levels in threatened miscarriage and to predict pregnancy outcome. materials and methods: in a prospective comparative case-control study, serum ca-125 and progesterone levels were measured for 100 pregnant women with threatened miscarriage who attended the outpatient clinic or the causality department of obstetrics and gynecology at kasr el-aini hospital, giza, egypt, during the period from march 2013 to october 2013. ultrasound was performed for fetal viability, crown-rump length (crl), gestational sac diameter (gsd) and fetal heart rate (fhr). the patients were followed up and divided into two groups based on the outcome: 20 women who miscarried (group 1), and 80 women who continued pregnancy (group 2). the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (ppv), negative predictive value (npv), and overall accuracy were tested for ca-125 and progesterone levels in prediction of the pregnancy outcome. correlation of these chemical markers with the ultrasound markers was also examined. results: in the group that miscarried, ca-125 level was significantly higher (p<0.001) and serum progesterone level was significantly lower (p<0.001). for prediction of the outcome of pregnancy, the cut-off limit of 31.2 iu/ml for ca-125 level yielded sensitivity, specificity and an overall accuracy of 96.2, 100 and 99.4% respectively. the cut-off limit of 11.5 ng/ml for progesterone level yielded sensitivity, specificity and an overall accuracy of 97.5, 100 and 99.8% respectively. ca-125 level had a negative correlation with progesterone level and fhr levels (r=-0.716, p<0.001) and (r=-0.414, p<0.001) respectively. serum progesterone level correlated with gsd (r=0.521, p<0.001) and with crl (r=0.407, p<0.001) and fhr (r=0.363, p<0.001). ca-125 level was significantly higher in the group that showed hematoma as compared with the group without hematoma (p<0.001). also, serum progesterone level was significantly lower in the group that showed hematoma as compared with the group without hematoma (p=0.017). conclusion: serum ca-125 and progesterone levels are valid early predictors of the outcome of pregnancy in women with threatened miscarriage. they are correlated with some ultrasonographic markers (gsd, crl, and fhr).